The Russia & Ukraine Crisis

 

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Amidst the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, it is important to understand that why this conflict took place in the first place. We all have been hearing the news and reading the newspapers regarding the matter. We are getting mixed information and as a civilian we are getting confused. The only thing which most of the media news channels are focusing on is 'War' and which may lead to 'World War 3' (especially from the Indian news channels).

I am not going into the discussion as to war is necessary to solve the conflict or not; I will leave it for you to decide. We need to first understand the gravity of the situation, so lets dive deep into it!

The Dissolution of the Soviet Union:

The dissolution of the Soviet Union was a process of internal political, economic and ethnic disintegration within the USSR which resulted in the end of its existence as a sovereign state.

The Soviet Union dissolved on 26th December, 1991; and was divided into 15 independent countries:

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

                                                                                                                   

                                                                                                                

The process began with growing unrest in the Union's various constituent national republics developing into an incessant political and legislative conflict between them and central government. Estonia was the first to Soviet Republic to declare state sovereignty inside the Union 1988. Lithuania was the first to declare independence from the USSR in the Act of March 11, 1990.

The secession states was recognized in September 1991. The Belovezh Accords were arbitrarily signed 8th December by President Boris Yeltsin of the Russian SFSR, President Kravchuk of Ukraine and Chairman Shushkevich of Belarus recognizing each other's independence and creating Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). [The main aspect to keep in mind is 'the accords were arbitrarily signed']

Kazakhstan was the last nation to leave the Union, proclaiming independence on 16th December, 1991. All the republics, with the exception of Georgia and the Baltics. joined the CIS on 21st December, 1991 signing the Alma-Ata Protocol.

On 25th December, 1991 Mikhail Gorbachev resigned and turned over his presidential powers - including control of the Nuclear Launch Codes to Boris Yeltsin, who was the President of Russian Federation until 1999.

Aftermath of Cold War: Several of the former Soviet Republics have retained close links with Russia and formed multilateral organizations such as CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), CIS, the Eurasian Economic Community, the Union State, the Eurasian Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. On the other hand, the Baltic states and most of the former Warsaw Pact states became part of the European Union (EU) and joined NATO, while some other former Soviet Union Republics like Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova have been expressing their interest in joining the NATO since the 1990s. 

Point to be noted: Russia doesn't want Ukraine to join the NATO, as Russia's security will be threatened if NATO nations (especially the United States) will come close to the border-line of Russia.

The Roots:

The roots of the crisis obviously grew since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, Ukraine (former Soviet Republic), had the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The United States and Russia worked with Ukraine to de-nuclearize the country, and in a series of diplomatic agreements, Kyiv (Capital of Ukraine) gave its hundreds of nuclear warheads back to Russia in exchange for security assurances that protected it from a potential Russian attack.

Those assurance were completely broken in 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula and backed a rebellion led by pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Donbas region.

In 2019 Volodymyr Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine. What most of the people doesn't know that he was a comedian who played a role of president on a Tv Show called 'Servant of the People', and ended up becoming the actual president (an awesome story to tell his grandkids).

He promised during his campaign that he would "reboot" peace talks to end the conflict in Easter Ukraine, including dealing with Putin directly to resolve the conflict (and that made the situation worse, as we can see it daily in the news). Russia, too, saw this opportunity that it could get something out of this; it saw Zelensky as a political novice and someone who might be more open to Russia's point of view.

So what does Russia want? , well its been highly speculated that it wants Zelensky to implement  the 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements - deals that would bring the pro-Russian regions back into Ukraine but would amount for Moscow to wield influence and control. As usual, no Ukrainian president could accept those terms, and so Zelensky has turned to the west for help talking openly about joining the NATO.

Meanwhile, to Vladimir Putin, the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal and US's domestic turmoil are obviously signs of weakness. The West is divided; Joe Biden is still trying to put the transatlantic alliance back together after the distrust that built up during the Trump's administration. Some of Biden's diplomatic blunders have alienated European partners, specifically the aforementioned messy Afghanistan withdrawal and the nuclear submarine deal that Biden rolled out with the United Kingdom and Australia that caught France off guard.

The Nord Stream:

Another most important aspect of this crisis is the 'Nord Stream'. Nord Stream is a system of offshore natural gas pipelines in Europe, running under Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. 

It includes two pipelines running from Vyborg to Lubmin forming the original 'Nord Stream-1', and two further pipelines running from Ust-Luga to Lubmin termed 'Nord Stream-2'.

Nord Stream-1 is owned and operated by Nord Stream AG, whose majority shareholder is the Russian state company 'Gazprom'. Nord Stream-2 is owned and planned to be operated by Nord Stream 2AG, which is wholly-owned subsidiary of Gazprom.

The first line of Nord Stream-1 was laid by May 2011 and was inaugurated on 8th November, 2011. The second line of Nord Sream-1 was laid in 2011-2012 and was inaugurated on 8th October, 2012. 

Fact: Nord Stream-1 is the longest sub-sea pipeline in the world (surpassing Langeled Pipeline).

The laying of Nord Stream-2 was carried out in 2018-2021. The first line of Nord Stream-2 was completed in June 2021, and the second line was completed in September 2021.

The key aspect here is the Nord Stream projects have been opposed by the United States and Ukraine, as well as by other Central and Eastern European countries; because of concerns that the pipelines would increase Russia's influence in Europe, and because of the knock-on reduction of transit fees for use of the existing pipelines in Central and Eastern European countries.

Well! to put things in simple words, the United States doesn't want the European nations to buy natural gas from Russia, and thus booming their economy. The US wants the European nations to buy natural gas from the US.

So, coming to the most anticipated question- Who actually wants the armed-conflict?

Russia? - Nope! Why would someone kill off their customers? (based on the analogy above). Moreover, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia has no plans to invade Ukraine; and obviously any armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine would bring economic downfall to Russia as well. But, contrary to that - Ukraine joining NATO brings security concerns to Russia; and which in that case, an armed-conflict might be a defensive tactic against Ukraine. Nobody knows what is in the mind of Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine? - Hell No! It would not call doom upon themselves. That's the sole reason that Ukraine wants the help of US. Not to mention - urges to join the NATO. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine joining the NATO ensures their existence.

 

If none of the two nations wants an armed-conflict, then from where does this idea come into play?

There is a third candidate - The United States. The US wants an armed-conflicts to take place between Russia and Ukraine. It is this analogy that - Joe Biden will regain his good-will and popularity if he (along with NATO) defeats the Russian Federation; keeping in mind his weakness being exposed after the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal.  Apart from that Russia has stated US's point of view as a peak hysteria. Joe Biden in his diplomatic conversation with Vladimir Putin has threatened that if Russia invades Ukraine, then the US and the NATO will respond fiercely; which is completely opposite to what diplomatic conversation means - threatening in a diplomatic conversation????really??

It's like Russia vs United States and the battleground is Ukraine.

Comment below about your thoughts, I will like to read it and yes! constructive criticism is highly appreciated. Your criticism will help me a lot to improve in future. Also feel free to contact me at s.roncreative@gmail.com

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Lastly, Thank you for reading my blog. See you on my next post, until then 'Keep reading!'

 -Ron

Electrical Engineer & Technology Enthusiast

Email: s.roncreative@gmail.com

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